In our last Super Six Predictions before the NCAA championships this weekend, we take one more guess at which team we believe will extend their season one more night and compete in finals. At this point, we have all the information we need to make an educated guess as to which teams will qualify. However, nothing’s set in stone. There’s bound to be some sort of upset — like always. Spencer Semifinal #1: Florida, LSU, Georgia Semifinal #2: Oklahoma, Alabama, Utah Winner: Oklahoma Since I’ve been predicting Michigan to make Super Six all season long, it’s only appropriate that I stick with it all the way to…oh. Oops. Michigan’s elimination at the hands of the beam witch means that there’s a fairly wide open race to join presumed qualifiers Florida and LSU in advancing out of the first semifinal. So little separates Auburn and Georgia—and resisting being swayed by Stanford’s traditional postseason magic is harder than coal mining—that this pick is the equivalent of chucking a Produnova and hoping. At this point, it could be Towson. When in doubt, it all comes down to consistency, which is why I have decided to ignore that principle and pick Georgia. Auburn seems the safer pick and has proven the greater likelihood of hitting 197 this year, but in spite of Georgia’s massive trauma of a 2016 season, the team has bigger gymnastics than Auburn does and higher peak scores on every event. Georgia even scored better than Auburn on beam at regionals, just to provide another wrinkle. I want to pick an upset in the second semifinal, but there are just too many question marks and holes on the challenging teams to feel confident that an upset will take place anymore. UCLA has more than enough talent, and the return of Peng Peng Lee to bolster a lagging bars lineup couldn’t have been more timely and necessary, but being forced to cobble together competitive and reliable scores on vault and bars finally caught up to the Bruins at regionals and exposed the multiple tenths they’re giving away to the more intact and predictable Utah lineups and deeper Alabama lineups. At the moment, the championship appears to be a race among four teams that look the most capable of the 197.8+ it’s supposed to take to win a title: Oklahoma, Florida, LSU, and Alabama. Oklahoma is the top seed, scored the best at regionals, and has shown little indication so far of flinching or failing to continue those nation-best scores right through Super Six, while all of the rest of the favorites are exposing small-to-medium-sized cracks on key events. The team most likely to hit beam and stick bars dismount like monsters continues to be Oklahoma. Casey Semifinal #1: Florida, LSU, Stanford Semifinal #2: Oklahoma, Alabama, UCLA Winner: Alabama I am sticking with my previous winner. I don’t care if you think I’m insane. Oklahoma is the easy choice, but that’s boring. And if Alabama wins, I’ll look like a genius. They are finally starting to peak, and with just a few better beam landings, they could have taken the SEC title again. They still have more to give, and that is what I don’t see in the other title contenders. If the Crimson Tide can pull out all the stops and make the most of Winston, Bailey and Beers, they can win this thing. Between Oklahoma and Florida, I think Oklahoma will end up on top. Florida did not have a great regional, which is usual, but I don’t know if Rowland will have the experience to bring them back to peak form for Super Six. They needed to be in a commanding place to really carry over the Faehn legacy, and they aren’t in that position. Oklahoma has not been immune to lackluster scoring at the end of the season, but in my opinion, they have the stronger, and more consistent, lineups. LSU always finds a way to break the hearts of NCAA fans everywhere. I think the lower my expectations are, the better they will do. So I am just going to ignore them and silently fangirl over Sydney Ewing’s layout to two feet. UCLA has gotten their life together this year. Praise the gym gods for viral video success and the confidence that it has given to this team. UCLA is a team that does well with attention, and when people are talking about them, they rise to the occasion. The freshmen have been doing work, and with the surprise of Janay Honest, the lineups have just enough depth to make them a contender. Having star routines is never an issue but having solid mid-lineup routines is. Also, Peng Peng is back on bars, so there is hope in this dark and cruel world. The only change from my previous Super Six prediction is swapping Stanford in for Michigan (RIP). It is going to be really close between Stanford, Auburn and Georgia to fight for that last spot in the Super Six. But if anyone knows when to hit a meet, it is Stanford. Routines two to four are now getting into 9.9 shape on bars and beam, so they are looking to repeat their two-event destruction of last season. They won’t go quite as high as last year because Wing, Shapiro and Vaculik are goddesses. However, if they do what they can do on those events, Super Six is a reality. Elizabeth Semifinal #1: Florida, LSU, Auburn Semifinal #2: Oklahoma, Alabama, UCLA Winner: Oklahoma Like Spencer, my previous Super Six predictions went down the drain when Michigan failed to qualify a team to nationals. What a bummer. I really though it was going to be the Wolverine’s year to finally, finally make Super Six. But alas… One thing does remain true. Oklahoma will win. And it won’t be a half-win ending in a tie like in 2014. I think it’s the Sooners’ year to win outright. It’s the only team that’s remained consistent throughout the season and has the scores throughout the lineups to get the job done when it counts. If Oklahoma doesn’t make finals, it will be the biggest upset in quite some time. But Florida always seems to come out on finals night with something a little extra. I don’t know how other years will translate to this one with Rowland now at the helm and a questionable SEC conference championship. But you can never count out Bridget Sloan and her band of admirers — er, the judging panel. LSU will be back with a vengeance this year after having a splatfest on beam at 2015 prelims. If that happens two years in a row after such a solid season, I do NOT want to be in that locker room with D-D Breaux after the fact. The Tigers have all the makings of a Super Six team and showed they can make it happen from what we saw at regionals. The only thing stopping them are mistakes from freshmen like we’ve seen from the Tigers in the past. It was the rookies that missed beam opportunities in 2015, so Finnegan, Priessman, Kelley and Cannamela have to keep their heads this go round. I’ve learned to never count out Alabama. While I could totally see the Tide making a mistake and not making it, I can also see the team sailing through to finals like always. Beers has had an up and down year. Bars landings aren’t what they should be and beam has been iffy. However, with solidly-set lineups and a bit of confidence on competition day, the Tide will surely extend their season one more night. I really struggled between UCLA and Utah. While I believe UCLA has the higher scoring potential when Francis, Lee, Ohashi, Cipra and others are on their game that normally doesn’t happen all at the same time. And it will need to happen all at the same time if the bruins want to qualify for the finals and prevent the finals-less streak to increase to three years. I’m going to throw all instinct out of the window and choose UCLA. Don’t ask me why because I have no earthly idea, but I’m going for it. As for that last spot, it will really be a fight between Stanford, Auburn and Georgia. If Georgia hits beam more than just staying on the apparatus, I think it’s in. However, I don’t have full confidence that will happen. Stanford needs to kill bars and beam and not be terrible on vault and floor to have any chance. I don’t see that happening. But I am excited for this rumored Ivana Hong all-around performance. It needs to happen. Auburn’s the safe bet. And since I went wild and chose UCLA over Utah, I’m going with Auburn for the final spot. The Tigers are the strongest of the group, but can’t waiver if they want to move on. Hitting beam, bars landings and vaults to the best of their ability is crucial to success.
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Despite the elimination of event finals, the battle will still be fierce for those individual event titles as well as the all-around crown. Gymnasts from teams as well as those competing by themselves in Fort Worth, Texas will have a fighting chance to stand on the podium at the end of the day. Individual titles will be given to those gymnasts with the highest score after two preliminary subdivisions of competition. The results from session one and session two will be combined and the highest score wins. This criteria will also be used for All-American team determination. The top four gymnasts from each event, including ties, from each session will earl first-team All-American honors while those that place fifth through eighth will be named second-team All-Americans. Vault Contenders Regular Season Top 10 (NCAA subdivision) 1. Ashleigh Gnat (sub. 1) 2. Ali Jackson (sub. 2), Olivia Karas (did not qualify) 4. Brandie Jay (sub. 1) 5. Brittany Rogers (sub. 1) 6. Elizabeth Price (sub. 1) 7. Kennedy Baker (sub. 1), Alex McMurtry (sub. 1) 9. Alicia Boren (sub. 1) 10. Sydney Ewing (sub. 1), Lauren Beers (sub. 2) Nine of the top 10 vaulters will be at the national championships, competing for a chance at the vault title. Only Karas, who finished the regular season ranked tied for No. 2 won’t be competing for the title as she nor Michigan made the championships. But with an event like vault, it will really come down to who hits their landing on competition day. It won’t matter if Ashleigh Gnat scored two perfect 10s on the event this season if she takes a huge step back on Friday. However, the title will most likely go to a gymnast with a 10.0 start value vault unless one with a Yurchenko full absolutely nails her attempt and scores a “perfect” 9.95. Uneven Bars Contenders Regular Season Top 10 (NCAA subdivision) 1. McKenzie Wofford (Sub. 2), Krystine Jacobsen (did not qualify) 3. Bridget Sloan (Sub. 1) 4. Alex McMurtry (Sub. 1), Elizabeth Price (Sub. 1) 6. Keely Kmieciak (Sub. 2) 7. Kaytianna McMillan (did not qualify) 8. Brittany Rogers (Sub. 1), Chayse Capps (Sub. 2), Kiana Winston (Sub. 2) Two of the top 10 uneven bar workers did not qualify to nationals with their team or as individuals. This includes, shockingly, the No. 1 bar worker in the nation with Boise State’s Jacobsen. However, the other top bar specialist, Oklahoma’s Wofford is in prime position to take the title. With nearly flawless routines every single week, Wofford is a shoo in for the title if she does what she’d been doing every other week this year. It won’t be easy sailing, though. Stanford’s Price is phenomenal on bars, and many think she’s been robbed of a number of perfect 10s this season. If she hits, she could challenge for the title as well. Rogers had a perfect 10 coming. It was just a matter of time until she scored one. However, she did it on the wrong event. A bars queen, Rogers ended up scoring the mark on vault in 2016. However, bars is where she really shines and will be looking to bounce back from a couple of slip ups on the event and potentially take the title in her senior season with Georgia. McMurtry’s bar work is probably the most-talked about and controversial of the group of top contenders. With two perfect 10s this season, the judges think she’s good enough to hang with the best of them. But bars is actually McMurtry’s weakest event. Her form is somewhat orthodox — with a more piked shape than most. Her position at the end of Florida’s lineup, though, will give her an edge. Receiving a boost from Sloan, McMurtry could capitalize of score building and steal the title away from another more expected gymnast. Balance Beam Contenders Regular Season Top 10 (NCAA subdivision) 1. Chayse Capps (Sub. 2) 2. Danusia Francis (Sub. 2), Alex McMurtry (Sub. 1) 4. Sarah Finnegan (Sub. 1), Sunny Kato (did not qualify), Aja Sims (Sub. 2) 7. Bridget Sloan (Sub. 1), Nicole Artz (Sub. 1), Natalie Brown (Sub. 2), Lindsay Mable (Sub. 1), Caitlin Atkinson (Sub. 1) It’s time for Chayse Capps National Beam Champion to happen. She’s in the second subdivision and at the end of her team’s lineup. All the stars are aligned for the Sooner to take the title. All she has to do it hit one of her normal gorgeous routines. But Francis will be waiting. The duo spent a good portion of the season tied at No. 1 in the country. Both have a perfect 10 and both are hitting machines that anchor the lineup. It really could come down to what the judges are feeling and how the gymnasts perform on Friday. McMurtry is also a quiet, consistent gymnast. Finnegan has had her ups and downs, but it capable of a big number. However, she’s maxed out at 9.925 this season. It’ll most likely take more to win the title in Fort Worth. Sloan is a bit of a wildcard, which isn’t something that’s normally said about the Gator. Sloan has been hit or miss this season. She’ll either score a perfect 10 or fall. So if she hits, she’s in contention for the title. But if she falls, there’s no telling what will happen as it’ll have more repercussions than just losing the beam title. All around, a spot in the Super Six and other factors will be at risk. Mable and teammate Hanna Nordquist, Auburn’s Atkinson and even Georgia’s Mary Beth Box and Oregon State’s Maddie Gardiner are contenders on the four-inch event. Floor Exercise Contenders Regular Season Top 10 (NCAA subdivision) 1. Ashleigh Gnat 2. Nina McGee 3. Nicole Artz 4. Bridget Sloan 5. Haley Scaman 6. Kennedy Baker 7. Olivia Karas (did not qualify), Lindsay Mable (Sub. 1), Toni-Ann Williams (will not compete), Sadiqua Bynum (Sub. 2) Just like it’s time for Capps to be beam champion, it’s past time for Queen Nina McGee to win that floor title. It’ll be harder for her to do so without her team by her side. She’ll have to rely on the judges, her entertainment factor and her power to get her the score she deserves on Friday. She’ll have many things going for her, as she’ll not only compete in the second session but will go to floor fifth rotation with only Utah and Arkansas’ Amanda Wellick to perform on the event after her. But there are other strong contenders. Gnat has been the most dominant on the event this season in terms of scores with five perfect 10s. However, with six judges at nationals, small form errors that often go unmarked in Gnat’s routine will almost certainly be deducted. Nicole Artz is in the running for the title as well, but is in a similar position as McGee. She won’t have her team to help build the scores before her, so she’ll have to rely on her own talent and execution to put up a good score. Oklahoma’s Scaman, Florida’s Sloan and Baker and UCLA’s Bynum also have high scoring potential. But competing in the first subdivision may play a small factor. All Around Contenders Regular Season Top 10 (NCAA subdivision) 1. Bridget Sloan (Sub. 1) 2. Chayse Capps (Sub. 2) 3. Kennedy Baker (Sub. 1) 4. Nina McGee (Sub. 2) 5. Caitlin Atkinson (Sub. 1), Elizabeth Price (Sub. 1) 7. Breanna Hughes (Sub. 2) 8. Lindsay Mable (Sub. 1) 9. Brandie Jay (Sub. 1) 10. Olivia Karas (did not qualify), Alicia Boren (Sub. 1), Nicole Artz (Sub. 1), Myia Hambrick (Sub. 1) Every year, Sloan looks like the heavy favorite to win the title. However, the past two seasons, she’s stumbled in prelims before roaring back and winning the title for her team on finals day. If Sloan hits her routines like she can, she will win. It won’t be a blow out as many other contenders are capable of posting scores in the 39.7+ range, but Sloan can take the title to close out her career with solid performances. Capps has been the surprise four-event gymnast of the season, making her way into the bars lineup and proving to be an all around threat for Oklahoma. Funnily enough, her bars have been one of her strongest events in 2016, so capitalizing on that event as well as nailing her standout beam routine will be crucial to increasing her chances at winning the title or at least finishing on the podium. Hughes, Mable and Atkinson are all in contention as well, with solid events across the board and no real weaknesses. Mable has been a bit inconsistent this year in comparison to seasons past, falling occasionally on bars, beam and floor, but a hit could put her on the podium in her final year. Price is thought to be the best gymnast in the country by a large contingent of people. Capable of perfect 10s on at least two if not all four of the individual events, the sophomore is only limited by the judges’ ability to envision deductions no one else can see. Her beam can also get a bit 9.8-y depending on how she performs her double pike dismount. However, with major hits on vault and bars and a 9.9+ on floor, it ends up not really mattering most of the time. Others in contention include Denver’s McGee and Georgia’s Jay — who can both be limited by their beam scores — Florida’s Baker — who’s bar dismount is a bit precarious — LSU’s Hambrick — who relies on what her team does before her sometimes for big numbers — and Michigan’s Artz — who could be limited by the absence of a full team in Texas. Like the other events, the title will most likely go to the gymnast that’s on that day. It will be very difficult for anyone without a full team to challenge, though landing on the podium is a real possibility. The subdivisions may also play a role. However, history does not prove the theory that scores rise from afternoon to evening session. Read more about the numbers behind that on The Balance Beam Situation. The 2016 season is finally coming to a close, but twelves stills are still alive and fighting for six spots in the Super Six finals. While neither subdivision is straightforward as to who will qualify, the second of the second of the two will be slightly easier than the first as only two teams are realistically vying for the third spot.
This session will also most likely come down to the last qualifying spot. Oklahoma is as much of a shoo-in as any team can be. The Sooners have been solid all year and don’t look like they’re letting up any time soon. The national title is theirs for the taking.
Alabama is also pretty much set for finals. Even with B-team lineups, we’ve seen the Crimson Tide be able to produce top scores and challenge the best teams (see: SEC Championships). However, come finals, if Alabama wants any chance at winning, depth exploration has to stop and the big guns have to come out and play. As for the third spot, like the afternoon session, there are four teams fighting for that one position. However, realistically, only two teams really have a shot at qualifying. Of course, Nebraska could always pull a 2014 and sneak in and shock everyone — and the same goes for California — but it’s not likely. Nebraska started 2016 ROUGH and Cal will be without Toni-Ann Williams who will be competing at the Olympic Test Event in the hopes of qualifying to the 2016 Rio Games. Both teams will have to count on other teams’ mistakes to squeeze into the Super Six. So if everything goes to plan, the last spot will go to either Utah or UCLA. Utah defeated UCLA at regionals in Salt Lake City while UCLA bested Utah both in Los Angeles and at the Pac-12 Championships in Seattle. The teams are pretty evenly matched. With UCLA having the advantage on beam and floor and Utah better on bars. Speaking of bars, the event was the downfall of the Bruin squad at regionals. One more slip up and the Bruins would be watching nationals at home. Cleaning that up as well as getting rid of stupid floor mistakes is crucial if UCLA wants to compete another day in Texas. The race should be tight from the beginning. Utah starts vault, one of its stronger events while UCLA begins on bars. The Bruins’ best two events are sandwiched between its two weaker ones, so capitalizing on the strengths and then finishing as strong as possible on vault will be important. Utah will have to come out strong, hitting landings on vault and nailing bars. Beam isn’t as much of a strength for the Utes and floor is fine, so building a lead early so the team can absorb any potential miscues later on is the key to success for the team. Stay tuned for our individual all around and event title contender analysis tomorrow. We will also provide all the links and information you need to follow the competition in the last Mount of the season Thursday. After a long season that seemed to fly by, the national championships are finally upon us. Twelve teams are set to duke it out for six spots in the finals. While neither subdivision looks straightforward as to which teams will qualify, the first session will have a more difficult road ahead of them.
This session is really all about the third qualifying spot. LSU and Florida should make the finals barring disaster. (Although we know that’s a real possibility. See LSU’s 2015 preliminary beam rotation.) But going off the expectation that two spots are all but shored up, there’s one remaining position for four teams and three realistic qualifiers.
Georgia, Auburn, Stanford and Minnesota each have posted scores in the 197s this year with some being more legit than others. While Minnesota will have the hardest time qualifying — more than one team above it in the rankings will have to falter — it is a possibility if the gymnasts are on that day and/or the judges are on crack like at the Big 10 qualifier competition. More realistically, the third spot will go to the Gymdogs, Tigers or Cardinal. Georgia has the highest potential, having scored a 197.525 once this season. However, beam still remains an issue. The team counted a 9.6 at regionals, which can’t happen if it wants to get back to the Super Six for the first time since 2014. Both Auburn and Stanford topped Georgia twice this year, though, in Athens and at away competitions. How the Gymdogs fair will really come down to hitting beam and whether Brittany Rogers has one of her good bars days. Having Sydney Snead back from a sore back will be crucial as well as her scoring potential on at least bars is higher than back-up Lauren Johnson. Auburn is looking to make its second-consecutive Super Six after making history last year. The records didn’t stop this year as the Tigers defeated Alabama for the first time since the dinosaurs were around. While most people expected the Auburn to take a step back in 2016 after losing strong beamers like Megan Walker, that hasn’t been the case. This team has been the most consistent of the trio and has the highest probability of going through to finals. But as we’ve learned all too well, never count out Stanford. The scoring potential is higher than Auburn and the Cardinal has beaten Georgia twice this season and tied Auburn at regionals. Elizabeth Price and Ivana Hong are the one-two punch the team needs to advance. With the McNair twins and Taylor Rice as strong supporting members, the Cardinal is a threat in this session. Remember last year when it annihilated the floor rotation, which is supposed to be one of its weaker events, on its way to qualifying to the Super Six? Do you also remember that little factoid that the Cardinal would have WON the national title had it repeated that floor performance on night two? Never underestimate Stanford. Just don’t do it. So basically, the competition will be a dogfight until the very end. Georgia starts on beam just like at regionals, so fans will get a good idea about whether the race will include two or three teams from the get go. Auburn begins on vault, and will need to come right out without nerves and having good landings if it wants to be in contention. Stanford starts with its best two events first, so it’ll look to jump to a big lead over Auburn and Georgia if it wants to have a chance at another Super Six. Stay tuned for our second session analysis tomorrow and our individual all around and event title contender analysis Wednesday. We will also provide all the links and information you need to follow the competition in the last Mount of the season Thursday.
Leotard Rankings: Week 13
A handful of teams debuted new leotards while others rewore those that brought them luck earlier in the season for one last push to nationals. Find out what we thought about the new apparel. Gabrielle is back again as Casey couldn’t get enough of Shang Chunsong and had to fly back to China. But the judging criteria remains the same: up to three points for design, two points for fabric and sparkle, two points for school spirit and three points for overall appearance to equal a grand total of 10 points. Let us know on Twitter or in the comments below what you thought of this weekend’s leotards and if we missed any of your favorites.
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Days until the 2017 National ChampionshipsArchives
July 2017
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